Kalshi is a US prediction market, an exchange where people buy and sell contracts on whether real-world events will happen, such as an interest-rate decision or the weather. It’s regulated as an exchange by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and nothing if it doesn’t.

What Is Kalshi? The Regulated Prediction Market Explained

How event contracts work

Every market asks a yes-or-no question, such as “Will it snow in New York on Christmas Day?”

Contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢.
The price roughly reflects how likely traders think the event is: a price of 70¢ suggests a 70% chance.
If the event happens, each “yes” contract pays $1. If not, it pays $0.

Example: You buy 10 “yes” contracts at 40¢ each, spending $4. If the event happens, you receive $10. If it doesn’t, you lose your $4.

What can you trade?

Kalshi lists markets on topics such as:

Economics: inflation figures, interest rates, jobs reports
Weather and climate: temperatures, hurricanes
Politics: elections, after a 2024 court ruling allowed election contracts
Sports and culture: game outcomes, awards shows

Is it legal?

Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange in the US. Some of its markets, especially sports contracts, have been challenged by state gaming regulators, who argue they amount to sports betting. These legal disputes were ongoing at the time of writing, and availability can differ by state.

Kalshi vs Polymarket

Polymarket is another major prediction market that historically ran on cryptocurrency and served mainly users outside the US. Kalshi has been US-regulated from the start and uses ordinary dollar deposits.

The risks

Prediction markets are a form of speculation: you can lose the whole amount you put in, and fees apply. Only use money you can afford to lose. This is general information, not financial advice. For safer ways to build income, see how to make money online.

What is Kalshi?